Online grocery market seen reaching $1.74 trillion by 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the global online grocery market will grow from $1.06 trillion in 2026 to $1.74 trillion by 2031, driven by same-day delivery, dark stores and AI-led fulfillment. Asia-Pacific is expected to be the fastest-growing region as retailers race to improve speed, loyalty and inventory efficiency.

Why it matters: - The online grocery market is shifting from a convenience add-on to a core retail channel. - Faster delivery expectations are forcing grocers to redesign fulfillment, inventory and customer loyalty strategies. - The category’s growth could reshape how retailers compete on speed, assortment, pricing and retention.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence projects global online grocery sales will rise from $1.06 trillion in 2026 to $1.74 trillion by 2031. - The forecast implies a 10.47% compound annual growth rate from 2026 through 2031. - The market research report says Asia-Pacific will lead regional growth at a 20.95% CAGR through 2031. - The report was released Aug. 14, 2026.

The details: - Dark stores and micro-fulfillment centers are becoming central to online grocery logistics because they place inventory closer to dense consumer areas. - The model reduces reliance on traditional supermarket backrooms and helps retailers shorten delivery times. - AI tools are being used for demand forecasting, inventory allocation, order picking and fulfillment. - Fresh and perishable goods make grocery inventory management more complex than in many other e-commerce categories. - Same-day and instant delivery are now major consumer expectations in urban markets. - Subscription-based loyalty programs are being used to encourage repeat purchases and improve retention. - Proprietary grocery apps give retailers more control over customer relationships and first-party data. - That data can support personalized recommendations, targeted promotions and private-label expansion. - The report lists Amazon Fresh, Walmart Grocery and Big Basket as examples of platforms combining technology with localized fulfillment. - Key company names listed in the report include Nestlé S.A., Unilever PLC, The Kraft Heinz Company, General Mills, Inc. and PepsiCo, Inc. - The report is available in Japanese, French, German, Spanish and Portuguese through Mordor Intelligence. - Mordor Intelligence also offers the report at the full online grocery market report.

Between the lines: - The report points to a market where execution matters more than simply having an online storefront. - Retailers with proximity-based fulfillment, automation and owned apps may have an edge as delivery speed becomes a primary buying factor. - Asia-Pacific’s growth outlook reflects urbanization, rising digital adoption and a growing middle class. - The report suggests emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa could gain traction as smartphone use, digital payments and organized retail expand.

What's next: - Retailers are likely to keep investing in dark stores, micro-fulfillment and automated order processing. - AI-enabled inventory systems should remain a priority as online order volumes increase. - Competition is expected to intensify around speed, convenience, loyalty programs and private-label offerings. - Mordor Intelligence says its market intelligence team uses direct supply-chain auditing and volume tracking to support its research work.